There is no way to totally prevent base defense missions:
1. Even though there is a minimum damage (600) for fusion ball defences, they also have only 80% hit ratio, so if you are unlucky, they can miss even 1000 times in a row.
2. Mind shields are also not 100% effective. One does a really good job, two do an amazing job (yes, they do stack in OpenXcom!)... but there is always a small chance aliens will find your base.
3. A funny option (which you can see in my Hawaii Challenge LP on YouTube) is also not to shoot down UFOs at all. That way alien retaliation missions will not be generated in early and mid game (each time you shoot down a UFO, there is a small chance of retaliation mission spawning). But late game, they can be generated even without shooting down UFOs.
My recommendation:
- don't shoot too many UFOs down early in the game (you want them to land anyway, and raid them for Elerium)
- build 1 mind shield in every base; 2 if you're rich and have place to build
- don't bother with defences/gravshield... do the defense mission and everything resets again
PS: if you really want defences then 5 plasma+grav shield or 4 fusion ball+grav shield is the minimum... otherwise you'll not shoot them down effectively enough (i.e. you'll have to play base defense mission cca once for every 10 alien attempts)