v2+++ Updated charts for vulcans and ninja landcruisers
v2++: Updated charts to reflect SAM nerf (350-100%->450-85%)
Removed SAM only chart as it's no longer a "special" building.
v2+: Added crackdown odds to OP
v2: now allows for mixed building types; fixed escape not closing app
Heya, so math sucks. Why do math when a computer can do it for you? (Simulator as attachment below)
Will let you know how effective your defense buildings are if you enter the # of buildings, their toHit and dam, and the offending object's HP. Also works for vanilla xcom if you want to know how many missile silos you need for to stop X waves of battleships with Y certainty also.
Damage is assumed to be a spread of 50-150% and a miss is assumed to be 0 damage (both facts supported in a lot of places including the bootypedia)
This only says whether you are 100% successful in shooting down all the waves, doesn't calculate buildings lost on a successful missile strike (I actually don't even know the details of this anyways)
Also, I figure this would be a better place to talk about missiles if you felt like it than one of the generic threads.
Main takeaways for me: To fully stop 3 waves of missiles, you need extreme overkill:
(Chances of flawless victory)
Overcharged Radars: 3 = 1.2%, 4 = 66% 5 = 99%
Flak Towers: 3 = 1.3%, 4 = 9.7%, 5 = 27.9%, (8 = 82%)
Flak Cannons: 3 = 44.7%, 4 = 70.8%, 5 = 86.4%
SAM Sites: 3 = 88%, 4 = 97%, 5 = 99.5%
Vulcan Battery: 3 = 53%, 4 = 82.7%, 5 = 94.6%
(costs to reach 60%:
Radars: ~3.5 million
Towers: Don't ask
Cannons: ~1 million
SAM sites: 700k)
Vulcan: ~2 million
Also the odds here:
https://www.ufopaedia.org/index.php/Base_Defence_SystemsAre 100 to 1 not 30 to 1 XD (24 buildings, 1 wave, 50 to hit, 500 damaged, 3000hp)
Full spoilers on crackdown deterring in piratez:
Spoiler:
Out of curiosity, I decided to delve into the ruleset for crackdown ships and generation, etc and decided to make a handy dandy chart. Ship size is the same throughuot difficulties)
First the chances of given ships:
STR_ALIEN_HARVEST (? assuming no crackdown): 25%
STR_ALIEN_RETALIATION(uses "battleship" which actually seems to be a cruiser instead, it's 3500 HP whatever it is): 10%
STR_ALIEN_RETALIATION_L(assault transport, 1500): 15%
STR_ALIEN_RETALIATION_M(breaker, 900): 20%
STR_ALIEN_RETALIATION_S(boarding torpedo, 400): 15%
STR_ALIEN_RETALIATION_C(corvette, 2400): 15%
Harvest isn't counted in the chart below so , e.g. a cruiser is counted as a 13.3% spawn chance and so on.
The # of buildings needed to reach 80% defense are:
SAM Site: 9
Plasma Battery: 5
Gauss Battery: 6
Missile Silo:7
Laser Defense:7
Flak Cannon:13
The # of buildings needed to reach 98% defense are:
SAM Site: 12
Plasma Battery: 7
Gauss Battery: 9
Missile Silo:11
Laser Defense:12
Flak Cannon:18
The # of buildings needed to reach 99.97% defense are:
SAM Site: 14
Plasma Battery: 10
Gauss Battery: 15
Missile Silo:19
Laser Defense:15
Flak Cannon:26
The # of buildings needed to reach "lottery ticket" defense are:
Others: ineffective
SAM Site: 18
Plasma Battery: 15
Disruptor Shroud:22
The # of buildings needed to reach "Make a mathematician's head explode" (about 1:800^31)defense are:
Disruptor shroud: 31
The # of buildings needed to reach 100% defense are:
Disruptor shroud: 32
Note: SAMS have 5 beds, but no base defense turret if they get through
Note 3: The above charts are only useful if playing ironman and is only for an unknown random encounter. 5 SAM sites will never stop a cruiser. If you're reloading, the best defense buildings are missile silos since 3 can occasionally defeat a cruiser with 7% chance.
Foot patrol (early ninjas, ratmen, doom dudes)
Ninja landcruiser individual odds:
Ninja landcruiser All 3 destroyed: